OK, time to throw in the towel on my short position. The market has held up during the recent collapse in risk assets (I don’t believe the argument that money will flow into Bitcoin as a Gold proxy) and has now broken through a declining trend line of the triangle formation that has been forming over the past month.
I closed my short position at an average of 390. I took an initial long position at 394 and have added to that position to hold a full long position at an average of 397.
Following a failed downmove I’m expecting a retest of the highs back up to 500. If we have entered the next up leg we would expect to see this follow through to a minimum price objective of twice the recent low (350), implying a move to 700.
My short stock position is unchanged over the past week. The bear market rally that kicked off on Friday may continue into early next week but that doesn’t change my bearish view and I’m still looking, ultimately, for a fall of at least 35% from the highs.
PnL is now sitting at -1 BTC. Good Luck.