Bitcoin Market Analysis – 14th June 2015

LTC is definately leading the charge at the moment. Yesterday it closed (basis 12h chart) above 1.883 so does that mean we’re ready to call a Primary Bull Market??? Well…not quite. While the LTC market behavior is encouraging it is also, at the moment, lacking confirmation. Before we are ready to declare the start of a Primary Bull market we need to see BTC vs USD close above 244.50 (basis 12h chart). As we write we are trading around 234.

So why do we wait for confirmation? Surely a signal has been triggered in LTC and it is right to take a position in this market, even if BTC is languishing? Not according to Dow Theory. Under the tenets of this theory the move needs to be confirmed by two related but different indices. The purpose, at the time, was to reduce the likelihood of false signals which could be caused by numerous causes, including inside manipulation.

From an LTC LTC2015.06.14vs BTC perspective I have the same concerns. LTC can be too easily manipulated by individuals with significant resources, this has been amplified as various exchanges now permit leverage trading.

If you look at the behavior of LTC over the past 2 weeks then yesterdays spike is very suspicious. In a quiet market period there was a huge buying spike to drive the market through the previous highs. This volume spike has exhibited absolutely no follow through (in terms of volume) no news to drive it and no continued buying indicates to me a drive through the old high by manipulators trying to trigger a flury of purchasing activity.

Are they just going for a quick buck by using a short squeeze or larger stakes to try and trigger similar buying in BTC it’s impossible to tell but it wouldn’t be the first time that trick has been used in various markets throughout history.

For my part….I’ll just wait for my confirmation signal in the BTC.

So my recommendation. No short recommendation in place. Long recommendation; Buy BTC and LTC if BTC can close above 244.50 (basis 12 hour chart). As mentioned previously I will split my purchase 25% LTC, 75% BTC.

Good Luck

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