So, here we are, my third commentary and the market is as dead as the proverbial dodo (apologies to any dodo lovers out there). After the dramatic, but brief spurt in LTC 2 weeks ago we have been subject to a slow drift lower in both the BTC/USD and LTC/USD markets.
So where do we now stand? Both markets, contrary to the moribund feeling in the market, are in key ranges. On the upside we need to see BTC close (on a 12 hourly close) above 244.50 and the LTC close above 1.8830. If we are able to achieve both these higher closes then we would go long both markets. This would be showing a confirmed reversal to the upside for both markets.
What about the downside? We now have an interesting possible negative setup created by the decline and subsequent rally in LTC.
In Dow Theory terms we have seen a secondary decline in LTC, followed by the rally. A break through the lows which is confirmed by BTC will signal a resumption of the long-standing primary bear market.
To initiate a short position LTC/USD needs to close (again on a 12 hourly close basis) below 1.6050. This needs confirmation by BTC/USD closing below 218.40 I will be taking my standard 75% BTC / 25% LTC position split on my trade if this occurs.